Iran has a 2nd uranium enrichment plant

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Permalink Reply by Denzil 'Val' Crooke on September 25, 2009 at 9:35am

How many warnings are the United Nations going to offer to Iran. I hope and pray that Israel can defend themselves because my feeling is that they are on there own. We have given them lip service, by saying that we support them but are we going to truly stand with them as they are Iran's number one enemy.

Does the United States of America have the backbone to stand up against Iran and do the right think?

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Permalink Reply by Steve Stuck on September 25, 2009 at 11:10am

Very interesting question. Here are several points to consider.....

- The Obama Administration/Congress/Senate were elected under the pretense of not meddling in other countries affairs. They constantly used the previous actions of the last administration to justify on their elections. This will be a test where they will just have too do nothing. If they meddle with military action then their foreign policy ideology completely falls apart. Their notion is talking. What if Israel defends herself?

- The Russia Factor. Russia will start positioning itself against Israel if they start gearing up with military action to take out these nuclear sites. This is very dangerous in a historical context and could trigger major events. Russia has strong economic ties to Iran.

- The United Nations is inept and just gives dictators a talking piece. The rheotoric that is allowed on our American soil is disgusting and quite honestly, I see a future American president within 20 years getting us out of this group. United Nations will pass a useless resolution condemning Iran yet go further in attacking Israel if it decides to use military force.

- If Israel uses military force and others decide to try to engage them in a military fight, you will see the biggest spectacle of an ass kicking. Israel does not use politics in its military strategy. If you fight them, they will use everything in their power to defeat you. They do not back down and let their politicians Monday Morning QB every move. They will destroy you and leave it up to you to clean up the mess.

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Permalink Reply by Aaron Laramore on September 25, 2009 at 11:55pm

Some of your analysis is off point.

If they meddle with military action then their foreign policy ideology completely falls apart. Their notion is talking. What if Israel defends herself?

This is mostly ideological talking point. In point of fact Obama's foreign policy is essentially Bush's foreign policy, in Iraq and in Afghanistan (thus far). They have emphasized robust diplomacy and they are engaging in that, but the reality of being President when it comes to foreign policy is that you don't have control of world events and you have to operate under constraints. Obama is criticized for not being a cowboy. Its a critique that is more partisan than it is perceptive. The US has serious limitations in its foreign policy because so much of our military and strategic bandwidth is tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Russia will start positioning itself against Israel if they start gearing up with military action to take out these nuclear sites.

Its true that Russia has significant economic ties to Iran, but a nuclear Iran is not in Russia's strategic interest either. The real dynamic here regarding Russia and Iran is all about Russia regaining/retaining a sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union (FOS). Iran is a bargaining chip for the Russians. They will happily throw Iran under the bus if the quid pro quo for that is the US leaving the FOS largely under their thumb. The administration recently pulled out of installing ballistic missile defense in Poland and part of the calculation there is giving the Russians a reason to cooperate on tougher sanctions. I doubt that the BMD pullout is enough to get them there, but it did move them a tad. Russia cares about Iran as a bargaining chip, not because they need Iran in some way. Cut the right deal and they will throw them under the bus, which is what the administration wants. Obama promised the Israelis that he would take care of Iran in the form of "crippling" sanctions, in exchange for them not attacking. Crippling sanctions basically means cutting off gas supplies, but to actually be crippling, the Russians HAVE to be onboard. Everyone else could go along, but Russia is an energy exporter who can singlehandley supply all Iran's energy needs. Tougher sanctions require their cooperation to be effective.

The United Nations is inept and just gives dictators a talking piece.

No doubt the UN has many drawbacks from the US viewpoint, but US frustration with the UN arises primarily from a mistaken assumption about it, namely that it has some independent ability to take action apart from the will of its member states. It does not. It is a member organization composed of states with competing goals and objectives. It is unreasonable and proceeding from a false premise to expect the UN to behave like an arm of American foreign policy.

If Israel uses military force and others decide to try to engage them in a military fight, you will see the biggest spectacle of an ass kicking.

The Israeli military is indeed quite capable, but they are not invulnerable and they can make mistakes. Look at the incursion into Lebanon to battle Hezbollah. They went in to root out Hezbollah and stop rocket attacks. They accomplished neither and in fact played right into the hands of Hezbollah who wanted to draw the Israelis in, bloody them and disrupt the idea that they can't be beat. They do have the best equipped and trained military force in the middle east, though not the largest, but that doesn't mean they can do anything with impunity or without help, for example, attacking Iran. Bear in mind that Israel CANNOT attack Iran without US cooperation. They would have to transit US controlled airspace (Iraq) AND they would require assistance from the US to effectively suppress Iranian anti aircraft defenses in order to reach their targets and any such operation would require several days of attacks to carry out. ALL of that would have to be planned in advance, so if the Israelis attack Iran, that attack WILL be jointly carried out with the US and we will know all about it before it happens. We would automatically be at war with Iran in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran, BECAUSE it cannot be done without us.

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Permalink Reply by Steve Stuck on September 26, 2009 at 12:24am

Disagree with your points, good luck with your predictions.

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Permalink Reply by Aaron Laramore on September 26, 2009 at 10:44am

Well, I was pretty specific and concrete in laying out my rationale for where I diverged from your viewpoints. Care to share what you disagree with and why?

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Permalink Reply by Steve Stuck on September 26, 2009 at 11:52am

I was little tired last night and I will do my best not to make this long, but it will be:

Russia is not going to be a participate in anything serious. Russia is positioning itself back into its old ways and does not care about America. China and them will still do business with Iran no matter sanctions are put on Iran. Then later down the road it will be exposed and nothing will done about it.

This recent discovery of another Iranian nuke facility is not suprising and quite frankly, why is the news acting like it is? What a dishonest approach. Many of the Mossad agencies have penetrated Iran and been saying this all along. Back in 2007 I believe the NEA put out a report bashing the US position that Iran was building up nukes and they were harmless. Iran doesn't care if we put economic sanctions on them. Iran told the IAEA on Monday they had the facility. Iran is driven by one thing, religious ideology and their preparations of the coming of the second Imam.

I don't get into platitudes on "diplomacy" and all the other feel good political terms. I don't say to disarespect, but look at our foreign policy diplomacy. How are we going to tell China what we want done on a foreign policy level when they own our debt? China just had to come over to our country about six weeks ago and tell us they are losing faith in the US paying them back. They are starting to position themselves away from buying more of our debt. How are you going to neogiate with Putin who is former KGB and is bringing back most communist policies? Putin scolded Obama on what really happened in the "Cold War". WTF is that about?

Lets look at diplomacy with Iran that is going to happen in about a week. What are you really going to say to this country that denies the holocaust and wants to wipe the "Jews" off the face of the earth? What are you going to say to this country who is probably still rounding up the protestors from the election?

As far as Israel getting permission from the US to fly in Iraq airspace, they probably will ask but if they are serious what will the US do if they fly over? Are we going to pass a UN resolution scolding them? Are you saying the US will engage them to stop them? Israel is much different from us because they will actually protect their country unlike America. They have principle while we flounder around with experimental thoughts of vision.

My last point in addressing your remarks about me being partisan. How am I? I watched Barack Obama and the Democrat party get elected on not interfering with other nations business with our military. They constantly brought up the Iraq war as their moral example. I am not going to get into debates with "well, when you become president things change". This is what I am getting sick of is excuses for politicians when just months before their position was totally different. Obama didn't want to do the missile shield, so be it. But be ready to deal with the long term results if that US strategy has consequences that we may not like. Bottomline, the Democrats who hold a veto proof Congress and majority in Senate with the Presidency were elected on issued like no use of military in situations like this. Now they are in tough spot, but we have seen this in history before especially with elections coming up in 2010. Will the Democrats approve military force along with Israel on Iran? That is the most simple question that can be asked.

My last point: Our country is very weak. Mush dissent on the domestic level. We are broke and have no clear future vision. Simple things like energy policy's could be solved with nuclear and our own drilling but our own government gets in the way of that. I am not losing faith in my country, but we still have to hit rock bottom in order to restore what we were founded on.

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